Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 2.250941 2.386993 2.530785 2.694731 2.877286 3.075272 3.307523
2025-04-13 2.010049 2.189857 2.388946 2.627859 2.909704 3.235448 3.646240
2025-04-20 1.901710 2.112257 2.353410 2.654197 3.025471 3.477534 4.084374
2025-04-27 1.832491 2.067513 2.344297 2.700968 3.158941 3.743499 4.576034
2025-05-04 1.775839 2.030150 2.336818 2.743369 3.284144 4.005166 5.092487
2025-05-11 1.700130 1.962772 2.285173 2.721982 3.319324 4.144335 5.449711
2025-05-18 1.636128 1.905185 2.240684 2.704185 3.354271 4.282253 5.820577
2025-05-25 1.577282 1.850324 2.195459 2.680524 3.376445 4.400356 6.174293
2025-06-01 1.524139 1.799749 2.152382 2.655708 3.392966 4.508816 6.526190
2025-06-08 1.486135 1.766735 2.130278 2.657628 3.447273 4.679620 7.016529
2025-06-15 1.460468 1.748438 2.126452 2.684265 3.539579 4.920311 7.685583
2025-06-22 1.414109 1.700498 2.079598 2.645229 3.526106 4.980580 8.005497
2025-06-29 1.370117 1.654807 2.034775 2.607949 3.514584 5.046445 8.360769
2025-07-06 1.320596 1.599992 1.975106 2.545466 3.457972 5.026279 8.522925
2025-07-13 1.302481 1.587251 1.973829 2.570466 3.545938 5.278875 9.382270
2025-07-20 1.291538 1.583732 1.985128 2.614777 3.669188 5.613923 10.560070
2025-07-27 1.279941 1.578695 1.993723 2.654924 3.788222 5.958025 11.906846
2025-08-03 1.251716 1.549273 1.965428 2.634677 3.798259 6.078863 12.646989
2025-08-10 1.226014 1.522609 1.940144 2.617825 3.812853 6.211052 13.482332
2025-08-17 1.200155 1.494950 1.912361 2.595412 3.815312 6.316744 14.279039
2025-08-24 1.175300 1.468033 1.884753 2.571899 3.813853 6.413393 15.095146
2025-08-31 1.158307 1.451932 1.872815 2.573718 3.860463 6.628349 16.508167
2025-09-07 1.148093 1.445292 1.874874 2.598956 3.954179 6.971863 18.745434